Hillary Clinton holds a three-point edge over Senator Bernie Sanders in Iowa, a tightening of the race with roughly three weeks until voting begins, according to a new set of surveys of likely voters from NBC/The Wall Street Journal/Marist.
In Iowa, Mrs. Clinton has 48 percent of support and Mr. Sanders has 45 percent as the competition between the two has become more contentious. Martin O’Malley, the third Democratic presidential candidate, has 5 percent in Iowa, meaning he will most likely qualify for the next presidential debate.
But in New Hampshire, the survey also found Mr. Sanders at 50 percent, to 46 percent for Mrs. Clinton.
That margin is smaller than a recent Fox News survey, in which Mr. Sanders led Mrs. Clinton by 13 points. An NBC survey last month showed Mr. Sanders ahead by nine points in New Hampshire.
Damn that's a squeaker!
I still contend that Hillary will ultimately be the nominee, and that having Bernie as our candidate makes us more vulnerable in the general, but I certainly have to give mad props to Bernie for his ground game. The man certainly knows how to rally support.
The article also pointed out that in Iowa Ted Cruz maintains a four point lead over Donald Trump.
I find that somewhat less compelling than the Clinton/Sanders match up however.
I was a Democratic party activist for a number of years in Iowa, and I do not know how you can possibly poll the Caucuses. The polls say it's close? All you need to know is how many people turn out. Less than 150,000 and Clinton's a lock. Over 200,000 and Bernie's the big winner. It's in the single digits in Iowa today. No one knows what the weather will be like on Caucus night but bad weather would be Hillary's best friend.
ReplyDeleteI will happily vote for Hillary Clinton, but I also value Bernie's efforts in motivating democrats to vote this election.
DeleteI like them both, but am prepared to vote for Hillary Clinton!
DeleteFrom the beginning, both NH and IA were supposed to be easy wins for Sanders, given the demographics. Now we are supposed to be amazed that he is leading in NH and closing the gap in IA? What a whacky world.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand what is the basis for thinking Sanders against any candidate in the Republican clown car would do worse than Hillary against the clown car. I also think if a majority of Americans would vote for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders, this nation is in serious trouble and we'd be the laughing stock of the world.
ReplyDeleteTwo points about the poll:
1. The margin of error on the poll is 4.8 - wider than Clinton's lead. She could be up 7.8 or down to Bernie by 1.8.
2. This poll was of Democratic likely caucus-goers.
I remember three of the number of things Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight cautions about polls are first, the state by state polls are more important than national polls because we vote state by state for electors. Second, look at who they polled - polls of likely voters better than registered voters better than just people in general. Third, pay attention to the margin of error.
No matter who wins, put them both on the ticket. Let the winner take the top spot and the loser take V.P. It's the only way you're going to get as many Democrats as possible to vote. If it's Hillary and, say, Julian Castro, the Hillary haters will stay home. At least with Bernie she has a chance to pull more Democratic voters. Probably some Independents too.
DeleteI'm an Iowan, and I plan on caucusing for Bernie. I like his ideas better, and I don't buy the idea that he'd be worse in the general election. Bernie's people are working hard in this state. I've had several approach me. Only 1 Clinton staffer has spoken with me so far.
ReplyDeleteBernie will beat Hillary. We live in an oligarchy and anyone voting for status quo is voting against their best interests. The MSM is lying through their teeth...Hillary cannot beat Bernie. Hillary is a professional politician, a liar, and Rupert Murdoch was found by some in the Huffpost that according to the FEC, he has been donating to the Clinton's campaigns for years. Yeah, they're friends...they are 1%ers and they don't want to lose control. Why do you gryphen not get this? I don't understand. This is a political revolution, and it will be difficult to get this momentum again....join and vote for Bernie.
DeleteExactly so, 10:46. It's shameful what the press is doing to Bernie.
DeleteYep, I have said from the very, very beginning this guy Bernie's campaign has legs. He appeals to young people. Does Hillary? not so much.
DeleteBarbara Carlson: so Bernie appeals to young people.
DeleteDo they vote? not so much.
Barbara Carlson: Bernie appeals to us middle aged voters as well. I'm voting for him in the primary and I definately believe he can win in the general.
DeleteBut I'm certainly not going to sit out the election if he doesn't get it. There is no way in hell I'm voting for a Republican.
OT-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.com/future/story/20160105-the-man-who-studies-the-spread-of-ignorance
I'very never been able to shake my ambivalence regarding Hillary and that is because of how cozy she has been in the past with the rich corporations. I prefer Bernie but whoever gets the nomination, I am voting Democrat.
ReplyDeleteI'm in 100% agreement regarding your Hillary sentiments. I like Bernie's ideas, but can't envision him being taken seriously by Putin or the Premier of China. The current President has done great things domestically but the foreign policy has left much to be desired and we really need someone strong on the foreign stuff for the next term. As much as I don't want to vote for Hillary, she is objectively the most qualified candidate (D or R) running.
DeleteBristol has posted a picture of what looks like a boy and girl in a classroom with the caption along the lines of "when a liberal has not been offended for 1 minute". If this was taken in school, something is not right about that.
ReplyDeleteIf she had anything resembling a brain, she'd be looking for support in any corner of the world where she could find it. Even from the awful liberals. As a liberal liberal, I find her ex just repulsive. I visited his Fakebook page, and it was a bunch of deep thoughts taken from a list of quotes somewhere-much like KHole Kardooshian does all the time. His "original" thoughts were all guns and hate, with a dash of racism tossed in. ALL of it. I can see this jackhole running for office someday, and with the other idiots elected from his corner of the world, I can see him winning. If he is the dad, he should've shown up sooner. Coming close to being on the side of the Wasillabillies will give me nightmares later, but in this case, I'm on the side of the mother. UGH. Gotta go wash out my mouth now.
DeleteWho is this Bristol you speak of? If it's who I think it is, there's no chance on earth it was taken in a school or a church. A bordello or a rest room? You betcha!
DeleteOT-GOOD READ>
ReplyDeletehttp://www.upworthy.com/a-year-after-charlie-hebdo-3-things-we-need-to-remember?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+upworthy+%28Upworthy%29
I disagree with you on your political assessment Griffin.
ReplyDeleteHillary may have a better chance among the Democratic face, but among get the general populous, Sanders has a better chance.
not to mention the fact that once he is in office, the Republicans have already declared war against Hillary. If Hillary is elected, she would be elected with a strong Republican Senate and house. and we would see even more opposition to Hillary's Presidency than President Obama.
Sanders is more likely to be able to reach across the aisle. Assuming that the corporations don't flex their muscles against the Sanders presidency... which you know that they will. However, considering his history as an independent, corporations would have a much tougher uphill battle to win over the general population because they don't have the previous eight years of partisan attacks build up against him.
In other words, at this point in time, ace Sanders presidency is more likely to get shit done. And be more likely to occur.
I disagree. I like Bernie, but what has he accomplished in his decades in Congress? He's from a tiny white state, known mostly by wonkish progressives, and Hillary can fight back viciously. Sanders is NOT "likely to be able to reach across the aisle" while Hillary spent time in the Senate, too, if you remember. Hillary is more likely to do what is necessary to get things done.
DeleteIf John Edwards hadn't phucked Rielle and himself and us, he might have been the perfect candidate this go round.
ReplyDeleteAnd he would have been Obama's running mate, probably...
Delete... hope it was worth it, John.
With the right wing as extreme as it is now, we need an equally extreme leftist to cause a shift even to the middle. Hillary is a centrist which means we end up with center right governance at best. This is not enough to turn the tide. As Bernie says, "We need a revolution," and until we get that, not much will change. He is in an extremely good position now and as he gets better known, his appeal will grow, especially among the younger voters. Gryph, why can't you, of all people, see this?
ReplyDelete12:41 If you think people will vote for a revolution after Obama proved too moderate for many you are dreaming. While I like the idea, too many people have it too good to revolt. However bad it is for them, it could still get worse, and will if the
DeleteRs win. Bernie doesn't have enough time to get 'better known' enough to win.
People keep saying that Bernie's appeal is to the younger crowd. I'm a tad younger than he is, my son is 36, and everybody we know is feelin' the Bern. I've been surprised at some of the people who are excited about Bernie. I think the older you are, the more appealing a revolution sounds. Just because I'm a woman does not mean I'm automatically for Hillary, which I guess I'm supposed to be. I think a Bernie win would be the best damn thing that's happened in my world in a very long time. And I think it just might happen.
DeleteAs of now Bernie has a better chance against a Repub than Hillary as Bernie could very well siphon off disaffected Repub voters if either Trump or Cruz were the nominees.
ReplyDeleteSheesh
Totally agree with you.
DeleteI agree with the folks who disagree with Gryphen. Poll after poll shows Bernie beating TRump, it's just that the news media isn't too eager to make a big deal of those polls. I believe that any sane Republican is far more likely to go with Bernie than with Hillary. I was for her in '08, but the more I learn about her, the less I want her in office. This may seem unimportant to some folks, but "I don't know enough about it" pertaining to medical marijuana scares the hell out of me. Umm...why not, Hillary? What planet are you living on? All of her "liberal" ideas have come about in response to Bernie's long held liberal ideas. She's farther right than Obama. Bernie's one iffy stance long ago on guns, I can live with. She lost the last one in the caucus effort. I hope to see it happen again. Feelin' the Bern! Caucus your ass off, people!
ReplyDeleteHere's FiveThirtyEight's primer on polls:
ReplyDeletehttp://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls/
I like both of them, but leaning more toward Hillary. She's running a campaign while being pilloried by the Teathuglicans day in day out. All I know is I'm voting for whomever wins the nomination.
ReplyDeleteI know Hillary has the experience, but we didn't hold that against a young Obama in 2008.
ReplyDeleteRoll Tide!
They will for Bernie. Watch and See.
ReplyDeleteGawker:
ReplyDeleteDonald Trump's Personal Brand Is Slowly, Excruciatingly Crumbling
If Donald Trump wins the presidency, he will have a job for four years. If not, he may not have a job ever again.
According to a survey conducted by the brand consultant agency BAV Consulting, since the start of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, the Trump brand of hotels, housing developments and golf courses has slowly been losing its market in its biggest consumer base: rich people.Politico broke the results down in a feature on Monday:
In categories such as “prestigious,” “upper class” and “glamorous” the Trump name has plummeted among high-income consumers. Within the same group, it is also losing its connection with the terms “leader,” “dynamic” and “innovative”—quite a blow for a man who criticizes others for being “low energy” and considers himself an industry trailblazer.
The losses have been especially notable in Trump’s wealthier customers, with those earning incomes over $150,000 reacting most harshly. The survey reported that people felt that Trump was “obliging” and “upper class” far less than the start of his campaign—50 percent less, in fact.
Read more at
http://gawker.com/donald-trumps-personal-brand-is-slowly-excruciatingly-1752374812
I'll say it again.
ReplyDeleteBernie needs to be on the ticket, even if it's as V.P.
Julian Castro is on Colbert right now and I can't think but it is the Dems starting to introduce him to the public as Hillary's V.P. Why else would the HUD guy be on. Colbert even mentioned it and did a bit about Castro running as V.P. I think this is a BIG mistake. YUUUUGE. Bernie has too many supporters and they would vote for Hillary if she were on the ticket, even at the top, as long as Bernie were on it too. But if Hillary is on the ballot and Bernie is not, those supporters might just stay home rather than vote for Hillary and someone else. Hillary is a volatile candidate and she will lose votes without Bernie. We really can't take that chance no matter who the GOP runs simply because they throw so much money at this, plus some of the more questionable things they've done in the past. (DIEBOLD!)
Both need to be on the ticket.
Besides, I think they compliment each other. Bernie has done a fabulous job this campaign doing the sorts of things that VPs do. Putting out fires and going for the throat. But has never been less than a gentleman.
I'll be voting for Bernie just to send the message to the DNC.