Courtesy of ABC News:Chances of winning the election according to @FiveThirtyEight and @NateSilver538:— Good Morning America (@GMA) June 29, 2016
Clinton - 79%
Trump - 20% pic.twitter.com/LkCN7lBot5
This morning on ABC's “Good Morning America,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver predicted that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election against Donald Trump.
Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning, compared with Trump's 20 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast.
Silver said "both candidates have a lot of room to grow," but the only recent candidate to blow a lead like the one Clinton holds was Massachusetts' then-Gov. Michael Dukakis in 1988.
Nate Silver is number crunching wunderkind, so this prediction holds serious merit.
However we once again need to remember that if we do not show up in overwhelming numbers that the GOP's penchant for voter fraud could still win the day for Donald Trump.
I seriously have no idea how any Independent or Democrat who failed to show up at the polls could live with themselves if that were to happen.
a 1 in 5 is still too damn frightening when the result is T.Rump in the White House. And way too damn frightening to think that my fellow citizens outside mental institutions support this rabid Teddy Ruxpin.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. And polling seems to have been less reliable lately, I assume because of the difficulty of getting a good statistical sample from calls to land lines. There is a mad-as-Hell vote out there, the eroding middle class who have seen enormous hits to their prosperity and security. Few of them have the wherewithal to understand the real forces at play, so they lash out at the easiest targets. I'm not saying anything that hasn't been said a million times before -- the point is that there are powerful (if misguided) forces driven by real frustrations. If anyone is tempted to underestimate them, consider recent events across the pond.
DeleteThese are scary times. If Drumpf thinks he can benefit by pandering to Palin supporters, and maybe even channeling resources to rebrand the Palin image (a MOH here, a MOH there, everywhere a MOH MOH), it is imperative that people do what they can to put a stop to it.
(Mad love for you, G, for your efforts in this regard!)
Bear in mind going to the polls is essential to keep our country afloat. ANONYMOUS saved our bacon with their blunting of the Ohio voting machines the Rethugs had rigged to make sure Obama lost. Rove went Ape S*** he was sure the rigging worked, until he found out it didn't on Faux News for all to see.
ReplyDeleteThen remember all those voting machines that put the Rethug name in when people voted democratic.
BE VIGILANT & STAY LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE SURE THE MACHINE RECORDED YOUR VOTE CORRECTLY. Can't emphasize that enough because we will never know how many votes the machine switched before that woman and then a man in a different city noted their votes came up Rethug after they voted straight Democrat.
Yes! First: VOTE (even if you think Hillary will "automatically" win, then make sure the machine recorded your vote!
DeleteDiebold voting machines-owned by Republicans
DeleteConservatives are already trying to say Nate Silver doesn't know what he's talking about.
ReplyDeleteWrong!
He correctly predicted how 49 of the 50 states would vote in 2008.
In 2012 he correctly predicted all 50 states.
Donald Trump you're in trouble, bud.
I love Nate, but he also gave Trump an 8% chance of winning the primary even after they had started. I like Larry Sabato at UVA. I think he's probably a Republican, but he has Hillary wiping the floor with him in the electoral college. Nate's predictions might be trickier this year because I think most polls will underestimate the turnout from the young, the brown and those with lady parts. Just a thought.
DeleteTrump just may quit before he loses to a woman.
DeletePredict it will be on the eve of the election! Just to make the biggest mess.
@ Barbara, it wouldn't make a difference at all once his name is on the ballot. One election yr because I voted by absentee ballot I voted for my friend Paul Wellstone that passed away instead of his replacement Walter Mondale. tRump can back out at the last minute and any replacement would have to deal with his name on the ballot.
DeleteI agree with you, Barbara, I can't see him staying in and enduring a loss.
DeleteOutstanding news! Especially from Nate Silver, who is always spot on!
ReplyDeleteHillary Clinton has my vote and I can hardly wait to cast it for her!
But only if we get our asses out there and vote - not just for her but for Democrats in Congress. We take anything for granted at our peril.
ReplyDeleteM from MD
I really dislike the idea we don't get a hard copy of the way we voted! A hard copy could go a long way to proving machine fraud if enough people complained.
ReplyDeleteBesides, I don't like the computers. Yes, they are fast for counting and compiling, but ANY computer can be rigged.
And now that people know that Florida - and the courts - are stupid enough to believe that because a little tag from the punch process is still hanging by a thread on the voter's card makes the vote invalid, the voter can be more careful about removing it.
Mention this again in November!
DeleteMy long time straight party Democratic vote is going to ex NM governor, Gary Johnson. He was a good governor and doesn't have the baggage the Hillary or Orange Hillary have.
ReplyDeleteI gave him a second look thanks to the disrespect shown by so many here. I hope other "Butt hurt" Bernie "hos and bros" give Gary a look. I have lived in the ABQarea since the 1960's and he was a strong, responsible leader.
There you go, another wasted vote.
DeleteYou sound extremely intelligent and emotionally stable. With a couple of exceptions like weed and abortion, Johnson's policy positions are diametrically opposed to Sanders. In the area on which Bernie based his whole candidacy, economic justice, Johnson's positions would, without exception, greatly increase the inequalities Bernie called out. So you've just confirmed to the whole world that a) you're hilariously uneducated about your own freaking ex-governor and b) you stand for nothing but your own ego and your precious fee-fees.
DeleteSeriously, you're in NM, so fuck your dumb ass. Your state will go strongly for Clinton and you can throw an even bigger temper tantrum then.
I won't try and convince you to vote for Hillary for 'the good of the country' and to save us from the potential catastrophe of a Trump presidency. I am feeling confident enough that Trump's plummeting poll numbers and painfully idiotic statements will continue unabated and doom him to spectacular failure in November.
DeleteVote your conscience and, if that means casting your ballot for Johnson, so be it.
Please be aware, however, that much of the 'baggage' that Hillary is accused of carrying is based on innuendo, unproven accusations and flat out lies. She has somehow achieved the reputation of being untrustworthy and a perpetual liar when, in truth, she has been proven by numerous fact-checking organizations to be the most honest candidate in this election process. She is the most qualified and experienced candidate in my lifetime (of 55 years) and has the intelligence and temperament to lead this country through the economic and security challenges we will face in the years to come.
Vote for Johnson if you feel he's the best candidate, not because he's Not-Hillary.
If you're open to reading another point of view, this may interest you.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/6/11/1537582/-The-most-thorough-profound-and-moving-defense-of-Hillary-Clinton-I-have-ever-seen
I really have to say that your statement, 4:15, about "another wasted vote" is so stupidly WRONG.
DeleteThe ONLY wasted vote is one NOT CAST! Everyone has the right to vote as they please in this country and unless that changes, she has every right to vote as she feels is right.
As long as she votes, she is fine. You may disagree with her, but you can't legitimately call her out for that.
And to the other 4:15? So what? She has, apparently, more experience with the man she said she would vote for. She feels better about that. Whether she is right about him is none of your concern. She VOTES. Let her do as she will without getting insulting, which is completely uncalled for!
Why do we encourage everyone to vote? Quite frankly, people who don't bother to educate themselves about the candidates, the issues and where candidates stand on those issues shouldn't be voting. They have the right, of course, but they're not exercising even the most basic responsibility or maturity.
DeleteI'm never going to compliment someone just for voting. Voting with appropriate preparation -- that's worth celebrating.
@4:30
Delete"Hillary is accused of carrying is based on innuendo, unproven accusations and flat out lies. She has somehow achieved the reputation of being untrustworthy and a perpetual liar when, in truth, she has been proven by numerous fact-checking organizations to be the most honest candidate in this election process."
Nope.
>Two active FBI investigations.
>Over 200 days without a press conference.
>Won't release the transcripts from the speeches that she banked $21mil from.
5:08, those are your reasons? You may as well add that you think she killed Vince Foster.
Delete5:08, those are your reasons? You may as well add that you think she killed Vince Foster.
DeleteI gave him a second look thanks to the disrespect shown by so many here.
Delete-----------------
Wow, you give away your power to people you don't even know!!!
Hillary is NOT required to give press conferences; she is not an elected official at this moment.
DeleteShe is also not required to release any transcripts from speeches.
You forgot to add the Benghazi !!!!
Since you seem to like to beat dead horses, however it was ok with you that Bernie’s dog ate his tax returns.
Thanks for helping Donald Trump to win. Do you "I'm voting third party" guys have any idea how the real world works???
DeleteHow could someone so committed to Bernie turn around and vote for someone so opposite of what Bernie stands for? Were you just enamored of the campaign with no thought for what it was about? It seems like an uninformed thing to do,unless it's just a childish move to punish the campaign that beat your candidate. I mean,if you believe in Bernie and what he advocated,write his name in,don't try to elect someone who doesn't believe in the same things Bernies campaign was about.
Delete3:07pm
DeleteI've been a long-time Independent with Libertarian leanings, and I've voted Libertarian in the last 3 elections and will do so again this year and join you in voting for Johnson.
I realize that Libertarian purists don't really care that much for him but I think his slight tempering of the Libertarian platform is a good thing and is making Libertarianism more attractive to a larger segment of our population that isn't in line with two the major party platforms.
5:24pm
Delete"white ass sorry ass"? Racist much? Plus, how weird that you would assume that someone from New Mexico is white...I'd personally make a very different assumption.
Just curious, what color are you, just so I know what denigrating term to use next time you show up here...I'm pretty sure I know but I'd like to hear it from your mouth, boy.
YAY! The FEC today filed a complaint with Trump's organization for soliciting money from abroad!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.alternet.org/election-2016/trump-slammed-fec-complaint-knowingly-and-illegally-soliciting-foreign-donations
It's about time! Slap him silly, people! Make him cry out in pain. You know he will anyway! AND he will blame Hillary, too.
Haul his fat, white ass off to jail is my recommendation!
ReplyDeleteWell, now we just have to hope Hillary doesn't put on a helmet and get in a tank, and some Lee Atwater disciple doesn't come up with a Willy Horton. (The curiosity got me and had to check Wiki: Michael Dukakis is 82 now.)
ReplyDeleteThere are a number of more conservative people on my Facebook feed and I used to get several pro-Trump posts every day. I've noticed a distinct lack of those kind of posts in the past couple of weeks, even from the most conservative of the bunch.
ReplyDeleteThey may still vote for him come November, but they're certainly not publicly bragging about being a Trump supporter anymore.
I DO, however, see a lot more pro-Clinton posts and comments, which makes me smile.
I now live in Texas, I am originally a Minnesota progressive Democrat. I do havee republican friends and business associates and most of those have told me without prompting that they will either not vote for the top nat'l office( mostly men) and the women are voting for Hillary, one a one are voting for tRump.
DeleteVote, GOTV make damned sure it's counted. See anything even close to inappropriate going on? Report them.
ReplyDeleteThe only people that are safe to stay home and not vote are white men.
ReplyDeleteThe rest of us run the risk of ending up in a Trump Gulag, which he will find a way to make a profit.
No excuses, no feeling safe that Trump can't win, remember the George W disaster.
O/T - Gryph, they are pushing Trump out for Romney?
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/politico/status/748379500883369985
Excepting for the possibility of an October surprise - yes, Hillary should win in November.
ReplyDeleteAnd it will be a landslide
IF EVERYONE GETS OUT TO VOTE
because I expect Hillary to chew Donald Trump to pieces in the debates.
Hillary will come off statesmanlike, while Donald will expose himself (chuckle) as a dim-wit, shouting insults and innuendo in a lame attempt to cover his ignorance.
But none of it will matter if everyone doesn't
GET OUT AND VOTE
in November.
I don't want Hillary to just win in November...
I want Hillary to win with a huge MANDATE.
An 80% chance of winning could mean an 80% chance of winning by a 2% margin.
ReplyDeleteWe have to go above and beyond to GOTV to overcome republican voter fraud, voter suppression, and election fraud.
We need the biggest possible margin to overcome the republican dirty tricks that are surely coming and which will deprive many of their right to cast a vote or have their vote be counted correctly.