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| If these numbers look a little off, it's because some of them were pulled out of somebody's ass. |
The polls don’t look good at all for Donald Trump right now. The RealClearPolitics average of the polls has Hillary Clinton up by 6.7 points. The Huffington Post Pollster has Clinton up by 7.4 points. The New York Times gives Clinton an 80 percent chance of winning the election, and FiveThirtyEight gives her an 81.7 percent chance.
In the face of all this bad news, some Trump supporters have taken it upon themselves to, essentially, make up poll numbers that look favorable for Trump. This is Long Room, the website dedicated to changing poll numbers so they’re "unbiased."
These poll numbers are total bullshit. The website’s methodology page claims that the tracker incorporates state data to accurately reflect the demographics of voters. But it seems that, in reality, if a pollster consistently gets results that favor Clinton, it’s deemed more "biased" — and Long Room changes the number further in Trump’s direction.
Apparently the pro-Trump folks on Reddit are promoting this Longroom "polling" site in the hopes that it will rally the troops to continue supporting a candidate that shoots himself in the foot as often as some people blow their nose.
You may remember that this same thing happened back in 2012 when polls showed President Obama destroying Mitt Romney.
Gee, how did that work out again?
I guess these were the polls Karl Rove was watching last time, right?
ReplyDeleteThat's the first thing that popped into my head! Megyn Kelly saying "is this math you do to make yourself feel better?"
DeleteReplied much the same below without seeing this first. Spot on.
DeleteI wonder who Karl Rove is going to vote for.
DeleteHe doesn't strike me as the mindless team player that will go along with the party's pick unless he is getting paid handsomely to do so.
Interesting read:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.reddit.com/r/NeutralPolitics/comments/4w6gbu/longroom_polling_how_accurate_is_it/
Mitt believed the FAKE poll numbers and had the fireworks ready to celebrate his win.
ReplyDeleteAnd who can ever forget Karl Rove?
Delete"Did not! Did not! Did not!" :)
I think the real issue is they weren't anticipating such a high turnout from minorities. Also, they probably had the voting machines in OH rigged. Remember his son owned the company that ran the machines that they used there? IMO -- if you remember, there were two places in the state where the numbers were late coming back, one GOP area and Cleveland. What happened was, they were ready to change enough votes in the GOP area to win, based on the kind of turnout they were expecting. But in the end, there were hundreds of thousands of people waiting in line to vote in Cleveland when the polls closed, but there were only 50,000 votes outstanding in OH. So whatever they were planning was moot, it wouldn't have been enough.
DeleteOf course, it would have been moot anyway, because Romney lost FL and VA, both of which were surprises. So even if Romney won OH, he would have lost.
Is everyone afraid to tell Trump he's losing 'cause they then risk being fired? Life with a bully.
ReplyDeleteThe right wing conservatives are so used to creating their own reality that when reality slaps them upside the head, they just can't understand WTF just happened. I keep on seeing Karl Rove's face as he just insisted that what was happening in the real world wasn't.
ReplyDeleteThe whole damn parade of pollsters is out of step with Trumpolls. Believe me.
ReplyDeleteMass Conservative DELUSION! Scary and sad. Part of their collective complex.
ReplyDeleteI am not a fan of electronic voting machines. I prefer eco paper ballot with a numbered receipt, My vote logged and numbered. It is the only way to double check or recount. R's are Riggers.
ReplyDeleteI seem to remember using skewed polls blew up in Karl Roves face right on live TV.
ReplyDeleteOne of the first classes that I took in college mid-70s was statistics and learned how easily they can be skewed. I feel the same about polls to this day.
ReplyDeleteThere's lies, damned lies and then there's statistics.
DeleteOT
ReplyDeleteOh my RICH republican donors are with Hillary.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/08/06/slap-trump-wealthy-republicans-campaign-clinton.html
Reuters poll has Hillary’s lead down to three points. I don't know about other polls, but I said yesterday and the day before that I thought her lead would go way down when the next polls came out. Trump’s last three days have been--for him--much better, and he's been having really big rallies this week and leaving the overall impression of Trump the Winner, like before. I see him as a total loser, of course, but I'm talking about people who are easily influenced by the little that they bother paying attention to.
ReplyDeleteEven with Melania's and Trump’s scandals and dumb moves of late, Trump used written-down talking points Thurs.-Sat., and by going on and on about the 400 million and the emails, he was staying on message. On her own, and even with Kaine, Hillary’s just not got enough to keep people as excited about her and wanting to know what she’s doing as when at the convention. I know she was out there with Buffet and that Obama made some jabs at Trump, but if Trump stays on message I really think the Dems should do something more showy to counter him. He’s also going to do an economy talk Monday. He’s going to have, I think, 16 names he announces of advisers. This is all that Trump ever has to do so that the public thinks he’s legit.
Obama’s going to be on vacation. I get that he wants to be with his family, but I’d love it if he did a rally (even two) and didn’t wait until after Labor Day to get going campaigning for Hillary. We’ve not seen Elizabeth Warren. Bernie’s probably thinking he’ll say a few nice things come October. We’ve not really seen the political stars since the end of the convention. Hillary needs star power going out there twice a week to keep the public excited about her and not looking at Trump again, which they’ll do as long as he avoids major mistakes. It feels like people are saying, well, it’s August and the last part of summer and then school starts up, so we’ll wait on this until September, but I really wanted to see Hillary keep her big lead and Trump continue to be anxious and desperate. Now, I think, he’s starting to feel good again.
I know what people are saying out there about the polls, but Americans have a short attention span and that does not help Hillary.