Thursday, October 19, 2006

Have you noticed that the oil prices are dropping right before this election? Do you think that seems hinky? Want to know how they are doing it?

In September the difference between the cost of crude oil and the price of gas after the refining process (called the "crack spread" in the markets) has narrowed substantially, meaning oil refiners are extracting less profit because they're charging proportionately less at the independent gas station pumps.

Just as Enron and others could manipulate, if not directly control, California prices by closing power plants at will, so can oil companies reduce refining profit margins (which were gigantic) to keep their friends in power. That's easier to control than futures where other players are in the market, and it's something retailers pass on to drivers. This is not conspiracy, but self-preservation.

Other strong messages came from Washington. My favorite is the one that came directly from the Federal Reserve. For two years, the Fed has been raising interest rates due to inflationary pressures (such as the high cost of gas). Then, it stopped--the day after gas prices reached their August 7 peak of an average $3.04 per gallon. The next day, the Fed said that despite high energy prices, inflationary pressures would "moderate."

The market slide started that day, not a sudden change in supply or demand. On September 20, the Fed again left rates unchanged, saying energy prices were in check, causing a further slide. Global crude oil prices fell, but gas prices fell faster.

Wall Street analysts, traders and hedge funds don't care about any of these reasons. They just don't want to be caught behind the ball, so they sell the market, causing further price drops. Yes, those are market forces--but they are market forces with a lot of push from Washington-related signals. Why now? To say the election has nothing to do with it would be naïve. To say gas prices won't be up again afterward would be wrong.

You know the other side of this is that they raised the prices in the summer just to make this drop in price seem even more substantial.

I hate these guys!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Don't feed the trolls!
It just goes directly to their thighs.